Market Optimism for End of the Fed Hiking Cycle, AI and Debt Ceiling Resolution Sends Stocks Soaring
This blog serves as a follow up to our previously released Q1 Investment Themes, as well as an update on what we are seeing and our current outlook.
Market
The S&P 500 (SPX). Stock market bulls chased any positive debt ceiling headlines, or any mention of the word AI throughout the month of May. However, macro-economic and corporate fundamentals continue to deteriorate, which offset AI-mania and headline chasing and left the SPX flat for the month of May. The SPX finished up 0.29% for the month.
The Nasdaq significantly outperformed the SPX during the month. AI stocks (led by Nvidia) and MAGMA stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta (Facebook) and Amazon) have been the main reason the stock market is in the green on the year. The Nasdaq finished up 5.92% for the month.
The Dow Jones 30 significantly underperformed the SPX during the month. The Blue Chip index is not currently the bulls investment of choice during economic uncertainty. Financials, Energy, Industrials and Homebuilder related (HD) all lagged AI and bubble-Tech. The Dow finished down -3.73% for the month.
Small Caps (the Russell 2000 or RUT) underperformed the SPX during the month. The RUT has more exposure to struggling regional bank and other small-cap financial stocks, as well as exposure to energy and raw material stocks. The RUT finished down -1.11% for the month.
Both the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Market indexes underperformed the SPX for May. The rising interest rates and the weakening of currencies against the US dollar also contributed to the decline. The MSCI World finished down -1.17% for the month, while the MSCI Emerging Markets finished down -1.86%.
The commodity index (BC) underperformed the SPX during the month. Commodity traders continue to price in recession fears, while equity traders breathlessly chase bubble-cap tech stocks. The DBC finished down -5.5% for the month.
Gold prices were relatively flat for the month again. Gold continues to consolidate the big gains from earlier in the year. It is noteworthy, however, that gold is not giving back much ground during this technical consolidation phase, which is another indicator that everyone outside of AI and bubble-cap tech stocks are more concerned about the recession. Gold finished down -0.51% for the month.
Longer term interest rates (as measured by the Ten-year Treasury or TNX) rose for the month. Some of the rise in rates can be attributed to money rotating out of bonds and into Nvidia and MAGMA stocks. In addition, there was likely some inflation concerns “spillover” to the long end of the yield curve. The Fed is likely not done raising interest rates, which is being reflected by the jump in rates on the short-end of the yield curve. The Ten-year yield (TNX) finished the month of May at 3.64%.
Oil prices continued to be volatile during May. The US continued to release oil from the strategic reserves in an attempt to ease gas prices. However, the release of strategic oil reserves also led to an increase in global crude oil inventories. This extra supply put downward pressure on prices. Oil finished at $69.45.
Market breadth continues to narrow as AI-related stocks have driven virtually all the returns of the S&P 500 in 2023. Five stocks added 2.4% to the index during the month. The other 495 stocks detracted 2.0% from the index. This charge was lead by Nvidia who experienced one of the largest single day gains in market value addition. Basically, investors either owned technology exposure in May and made money, or you owned everything and you made no money
Economic
Debt Ceiling Resolution:
It looks like the Fiscal Responsibility Act (“FRA”) will be approved by the President before the “X-Date”. This Act would raise the debt limit through January 1, 2025, and caps discretionary spending increases for six years – though the first two years are the only years that have enforceable spending caps. The market took the debt ceiling resolution in stride, as it includes less discretionary cuts than originally expected, i.e., growth may be more insulated in the future. Focus will now turn to the debt market, as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, starts to refill the Treasury General Account, which is basically the government’s checking account.
Earnings Season:
Overall, economic data has been consistently stronger-than-expected leaving earnings to be better-than-anticipated. From a spending perspective, bank lending & deposit data have not confirmed the worst fears about a tightening of lending standards, and the economic data has been consistently better than feared. Strong and income growth continue to support spending and that’s what we saw in Q1. Basically, for now, economic trends don’t support heightened near-term recession risk.
Jobs Update:
The jobs picture paints an environment in which you can pick your own narrative. The Non-Farm Payroll number was stronger than anticipated. Yet, the unemployment rate went up to 3.7% from 3.4% as the household survey has showed job losses over the last 2 months in combination. Pick your survey methodology and get the narrative you want. More importantly, avg. hourly earnings continued to decelerate. Wage growth levels are only ~1% above wage growth levels of 2019, and it’s still coming down before the labor economy has even lost a job (allegedly).
The Fed Update:
The Fed raised their Federal Funds rate by 500 bps in one year. The surprise up until the last couple months has been the minimal impact the tightening cycle has had on both the real economy and financial markets. It does appear the banking sector has finally begun to feel the pain of the hikes and inverted yield curve. We believe that continued stickier inflation could pin the Fed between a proverbial “rock and a hard place”, as policy makers would face the decision of either continuing the fight against stickier-than-expected inflation with aggressive policy, or risk sending the global financial system into another crisis as collateral damage increases.
Consumer Price Index:
The increase in inflation was driven by rising prices for shelter, used vehicle and gas prices. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in an effort to bring inflation under control, but it is unclear how long it will take for inflation to return to the Fed’s target of 2%. [1]
GPD Quarter over Quarter:
The deceleration in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a slowdown in nonresidential fixed investment. This was partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending.
GDP Year over Year:
The growth in the first quarter was driven by strong consumer spending, business investment, and exports. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, and it grew at a rate of 3.8% in the first quarter.[2] Despite the slower growth in the first quarter, the US economy is still expected to grow in 2023. The Federal Reserve is forecasting growth of 2.3% for the full year. However, it is possible that growth could be slower if inflation remains high. Despite the challenges facing the economy, there are some positive signs. The unemployment rate is low, and wages are rising. This means that consumers have more money to spend, which could boost economic growth in the second half of 2023.
Looking Ahead:
What Concerns Us the Most: In short: 1) Continued volatility; 2) Inflation transitions to growth frustration; 3) The potential for a Fed policy error and continued collateral damage; 4) A general tendency to think about the economy and stock prices in V-shaped terms, i.e., a Fed Pivot saving the day.
We hope you have enjoyed getting a deeper look into our investment research and look forward to providing this to you each month going forward. Thank you from the entire Konvergent Team!
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/cpi-inflation-april-2023.html
[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/real-consumer-spending